Monday, June 23, 2008

A Few Conclusions From The French GP

Reproduced from Planet F1
Sunday 22nd June 2008

Lewis Hamilton is looking like the novice he was supposed to be last season, but even the stewards apparently believed his offence at Magny-Cours was a minor and marginal infringement...

The Stewards Didn't Want To Wreck Hamilton's Race But Had No Other Choices
According to Ron Dennis, Lewis Hamilton's penalty was unjust because he was already past Sebastian Vettel when he briefly skirted around the chicane on the opening lap of the race. "He didn't gain any road position," the McLaren boss stressed to ITV at least three times during what was an otherwise brief post-race interview.

Yet the stewards specified that Hamilton had been adjudged to have gained an advantage - not a place - when he missed the chicane. As such, the matter of whether or not Hamilton was actually past Vettel was irrelevant.

Nonetheless, McLaren are entitled to regard the penalty as harsh - especially after the punishments meted out against Hamilton in Montreal and Heikki Kovalainen on Saturday. The Finn's grid-slot penalty was especially severe considering that, even if did hinder Mark Webber, the Aussie was still able to reach the next round of qualifying.

It may well be the case that Hamilton was carrying excessive speed as he overtook Vettel's Toro Rosso to the extent that he had no option but to miss the chicane. Yet it also appeared that his excursion was as much a preventative measure against hitting David Coulthard as it was a means to secure an advantage. In a sport that should be encouraging overtaking, wrecking Hamilton's race for what was a marginal and very brief indiscretion that interfered with nobody's else race is difficult to justify.

What the incident also highlighted was the shortage of options available to the stewards in such instances. Having decided that an offence was committed, they had only three penalties to select from: a stop-and-go, a drive-through, and another grid demotion. That they selected the most lenient punishment available indicated that they also regarded the offence as marginal. Given the option of a lesser punishment, the equivalent of a slap on the wrist, it is reasonable to assume they would have taken it. Unfortunately, from their perspective as well as Hamilton's, it wasn't available.


Hamilton Needs Some Home Comforts
It is just as well for Lewis Hamilton's Championship bid that F1's next venue is Silverstone. The Englishman's demeanour in France was of a man demoralised and convinced of his own victimisation.

For once, he did not speak to the press - a telling insight itself, particularly after he voiced his disappointment with the criticism he was subjected to after his self-induced crash in Montreal. And, for the first time in his albeit short F1 career, he appeared to give up in the final stages of the race, falling away from David Coulthard (although the same accusation could be levelled against Robert Kubica after the BMW driver briefly caught Kovalainen and Trulli and then apparently decided it wasn't worth the bother). A return to home soil and a morale-boosting rousing reception is precisely what the beleaguered Hamilton requires.

He also needs points. The collision with Raikkonen in Montreal has cost him approximately sixteen - not only did it cost him a probable victory in Canada, which was sufficient punishment alone, but with the BMWs struggling in France he would have been first in line to take third place behind the Ferraris at Magny-Cours but for the grid penalty that the Canadian GP stewards deemed necessary to impose.

Yet whatever the excuses, it has to be acknowledged that Hamilton is making an alarming number of mistakes this season. His driving has been scrappy, his aggression self-defeating and his decision-making faulty. 15 months after his debut, he looks like the novice he was supposed to be then.


BMW's Question Is Answered For Them
The question being asked after Montreal was whether Robert Kubica could win the World Championship. The question that should have been asked was whether BMW believed he could. For only if they believe Kubica can win this season does the Pole have any prospect of doing so. And theirs is a difficult dilemma. By winning in Canada, the team achieved their stated objective for 2008 of winning a grand prix. So what to do next? Begin concentrating on 2009 and preparing for the raft of new legislation that will be introduced, or maintain development on their 2008 car in order to prolong Kubica's title bid?

The team surely cannot have expected Kubica to be a contender this season, not when McLaren and Ferrari continue to boast such an substantial speed advantage. Their sudden regression in France, where they were caught by both Toyota and Renault, may well have clarified matters and sounded the death knell for Kubica's chances.


Honda Is A Realistic Option For Alonso
The uncertainty over the effect the rule changes for 2009 will have on F1's balance of power also explains why Fernando Alonso has refused to play down speculation linking him with Honda. With the Brackley outfit seemingly stuck in reverse, Honda would, at first glance, appear a backward step for the former World Champion.

Yet much the same was said when Alonso decided to leave reigning champions Renault in 2005 for a McLaren outfit that was, at that time, further down the grid and stuck in the doldrums. Alonso and his team of advisors gambled on the team's massive infrastructure and budget eventually bearing fruit and, three years later, they are apparently thinking along similar lines about a Honda team that, under the supervision of Ross Brawn, has already switched focus to next season and beyond.

While a seat is bound to be made vacant by Nick Heidfeld at the higher-flying BMW, the fact that Honda have previously shown a greater inclination to devote vast amounts of money towards their drivers' bank balances may also have a significant influence in Alonso's thinking.


And Fifth-Best Massa Is A Genuine Title ContenderBernie Ecclestone doesn't rate Lewis Hamilton highly. Asked to appraise the top five drivers in the sport, Bernie listed Alonso above Hamilton, declaring he had no doubts that "if he was still in a McLaren he would be showing Lewis the way home", and also endorsed Kubica to beat the Englishman in a straight fight. Judging by his two-word appraisal of Massa - a "smashing guy" - he doesn't hold the Brazilian in particularly high regard either.

Yet it is Massa who now leads the World Championship having overtaken Kubica in the standings courtesy of his (somewhat fortunate) victory at Magny-Cours. Massa, in general, is an under-acclaimed driver, and one who rarely features in lists of the top-five drivers. Yet such appraisals are based on past history rather than present form. While Raikkonen has been erratic and Hamilton error prone, Massa has excelled since the opening two races of the season failed to yield a single point. In the six events that have followed since, he has won three times and also collected two further podium finishes. That's championship-winning form in anyone's book - including, presumably, Bernie's.


Nick Heidfled Is The Master Of Understatement
"Having finished 13th is certainly a disappointing result."

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