The lights have gone out but the guessing game goes on...
Brawn Really Are Out In Front
Determining the reality of Brawn's pace at the front is a hazardous undertaking, with the results presented in the race confused and clouded by differing fuel levels, the double deployment of the Safety Car and the sudden deterioration in lap times caused by the soft tyres.
Having led the grand prix from start to finish, and finished on top in all three segments of qualifying, it is indisputable that Brawn currently possess the fastest car. The rest of the pecking order can be debated endlessly without resolution, but Brawn's status as number one is fixed.
But Not By As Much As Feared/Expected. Possibly
The indication in testing, and even from qualifying, was that the Brawns would be up to a second faster than the rest per lap. The indication from the race was that their margin of superiority is less than half a second - and possibly less.
Confused? We are probably supposed to be.
There was a suggestion from Ross Brawn after the grand prix that Button was under orders not to run at full speed throughout and an underlying impression from the weekend was that the team deliberately opted against displaying their full hand in Melbourne. Had they, for instance, low-fuelled in qualifying then the result would have been a humiliation - which, in turn, would have been the ultimate motivation for the rest of the field and could have persuaded the stewards to take another look at those diffusers. R.Brawn is a canny operator and his mastery of cunning strategy will not be restricted to the timing of pit-stops...
Team Brawn also surely possess a larger potential to improve their car's set-up and balance than any of their rivals. After a mere seven days of winter testing, this is a team still driving in the unknown. Button complained of bottoming out in the race while Barrichello was caught out by the handling of a heavy fuel load in qualy. There's still much to learn, and lest we forget, their 1-2 marked the first time either car had completed a full race distance in a single stint.
Nor is there particular reason to suspect that they will fall far behind vis a vis their rivals in terms of development. As they were able to afford to pay Barrichello a wage rather than accept a pay driver, the team's finances cannot have been particularly parlous even before Richard Branson arrived to provide a welcome financial injection.
Only in the very unlikely event of the FIA contradicting the judgement of their own stewards, technical delegate and president will the team be in danger of suddenly fall away. They are out in front - not, perhaps, by as much as we all thought on Saturday night but in front nonetheless - and should thus be considered favourites for both titles.
Honda's Two-Year Strategy Is On Course
Forgive the intrusion to the "incredible fairytale" proclaimed by Eddie Jordan, but, upon reflection, the Brawn GP story is not the romantic tale of plucky underdogs making good that some elements of the F1 media are intent on depicting.
Brawn GP are not the new boys on the block. They are the massively-resourced Honda team operating under a new badge and with a considerable budget. Their figurehead is the most-celebrated engineer in the team's history. Their drivers are both established race winners. And they've been working on this car for over a year.
Where precisley is the romance in that? And where's the underdog? There is, undoubtedly, a novelty factor in finding another team at the top of the pile but, in general, Brawn are being portrayed as something they are not.
As Martin Whitmarsh remarked, Brawn are effectively reaping the rewards of "a strategy" devised by Ross Brawn 15 months ago when, in his own words, "we decided to virtually drop the programme for 2008 and concentrate on 2009."
Some might consider that strategy duplicitous. Not so; it was a business decision, and one made easy by the full horror that was the unfixable Honda. There's no polishing a turd, after all. But there's a flip-side to consider. McLaren and the like should have no shame - and suffer no repercussions - from copying aspects of the Brawn, including their controversial diffuser. "We had 15 months to look at the regulations," remarked Brawn at Melbourne. The rest of the field, busy racing to the maximum in 2008, had no such luxury.
Keep A Close Eye On McLaren
Outside of the Brawn bubble, a game of catch-up is already underway. BMW's starting point to the front-runners is encouragingly close, with Ferrari a little further adrift. Red Bull are already there or thereabouts and, while they suffered in the stewards' office, Toyota's overall pace was competitive.
Of the leading teams, McLaren are the furthest adrift, which, paradoxically, probably makes them the most threatening. A little corner of Woking has already been working around the clock 24-7 for upwards of a month in search of a solution to their self-expressed 'performance shortfall' and towards that end the 'Diffusergate' row may already have worked to their advantage.
Whereas rumour has it that Red Bull cannot incorporate a two-tiered diffuser on to the back of their rear wing - hence Christian Horner leading the protests against the Diffuser Three - and Renault have acknowledged that its implementation would require a radical overhaul of their rear design, McLaren have been in the process of redesigning their rear wing since the middle of February. It is inconceivable that their new design will not incorporate a facsimile of the diffuser design on the Brawn, Williams and Toyota that apparently reaps a performance advantage of upwards half a second a lap.
Note, too, that McLaren were conspicuous by their absence in the protests made against the Diffuser Three. Is that a clue towards their progress? A factor in their silence will also have been the partnership of Mercedes with both Brawn and McLaren. However, our guess is that, in the expectation of the FIA declaring the twin design legal on April 14, McLaren will be the first team to break ranks and join the Diffuser Three.
Pity Red Bull
If it is a) true that the Red Bull's rear design is so complicated that they cannot use a twin diffuser, and b) true that a twin diffuser is half a second faster than a single, then Red Bull must be aghast. Because, otherwise, they would boast the fastest car on the grid.
The sight of Seb Vettel hassling Jenson Button for 50 laps must have been a source of anguish as much as pride and the youngster's late calamity will only have served to develop the impression of an opportunity missed. By Spain, and perhaps beforehand, McLaren, Renault and Ferrari will all have installed significant improvements. Due to their far inferior budget, the same is unlikely to be true of Red Bull.
Source : Planet F1
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