This year it seems it could go down to the wire like in 2007 and 2008. Those were good years where the championship was won at the last race and even at the last corner. Although it was tension throughout the season and at every race as you just don't know if your supported driver is gonna win it or not. But that is the draw of Formula 1, that is the adrenalin rush we live on every 2 weeks.
I think this year it is about consistency. The most consistent driver and team will win it. It is no more about all out winning, just making sure you get on the podium or even top 5 is enough. To do this you would have to:
- Win the race or
- Get on the podium at every race or
- Get into the top 5 at every race or most importantly
- Stay away from Grosjean and/or Maldonado.
So far, Alonso has been the most consistent driver of all, finishing almost every race and almost always in the top 5. Even though his car is not the fastest on the grid, it is still pretty reliable. And reliability gets you to the finish line. So far the Ferrari 2012 has been able to make it into the top 10 in qualifying (in Alonso's hands of course) at almost every race, has been able to adjust to just about any track (low, medium or high downforce) and is just rock solid.
The real problem at the moment is the car. It is the fastest car on the grid after their upgrades but the reliability is a shame. It seems in the last few races, only 1 car can finish the race. Hamilton and Button are taking turns collecting DNFs for McLaren. This is not helping Hamilton to fight Alonso but worse it is screwing up McLaren's challenge for the constructors big time.
Red Bull? They seem to have fallen off the bed. This year their pace is not bad but not that great either, not as dominant as last year. Which is good. Webber started well but has so far fallen off the pace and Vettel has lost a bit of his shine. But the real trouble with them is the car and its lack of reliability as well. It is not as fast as the McLaren and having an alternator that is unpredictable does not help. It could be their undoing in the end if they lose the constructors during the last 6 races remaining.
Mercedes and Lotus have lost the plot and are left to salvage what they can by defending against each other and the rest of the pack with Sauber really strongly in the fight.
So, who's gonna win it then? If the current form stays the way it is, I would have to say Alonso. But the title battle will really be between Alonso and Vettel at the moment, unless Alonso runs out of luck and Hamilton gets some of that luck. Vettel could be hanging around there to spoil the party. It's really between these 3.